The Decline and Fall of a Civilization

From: The Wizards of Ozymandias by Butler Shaffer

"The health of any system – be it an individual or a society – depends upon the production of those values necessary for that system’s survival. The production and distribution of goods and services, technology, the sciences, medicine, the arts, and agriculture, are just a few of the more prominent examples of the values upon which Western societies have depended. 

If we lose focus and attention, we may erroneously conclude that our material well-being is dependent upon the creation of the "things" that we consume in our efforts to sustain ourselves. In so doing, we tend to ignore the underlying conditions that make the production of such values possible. We come to value, and depend upon, the goose that lays the golden egg, rather than upon the processes by which creative individuals might produce more geese, or more efficient means of generating gold. 

In such ways do we create institutions (i.e., systems that have become their own reasons for being, rather than means for producing life-sustaining values). Having accepted the primacy of such agencies over our lives, most of us express nary a doubt about the necessity of taxpayers coming to the rescue of such systems when they face difficulties. When banks faced substantial losses as a result of New York City’s financial crisis in the 1970s, only a handful of people found any flaw in having the taxpayers bail them out. So, too, with major corporations, or professional baseball and football franchises, calling upon the taxpayers to underwrite their expenses. The government schools have also relied upon our worship of institutions to get taxpayers to continually fund a system that should have been allowed to die its entropic death decades ago. And now, in the aftermath of the September 11th attacks at the World Trade Center, airlines, insurance companies, and various other institutions have managed to get whisked through Congress, legislation to force the taxpayers to recompense them for their losses. Even commercial advertising can dredge up no more meaningful response to these events than for us to equate spending our money – with such advertisers, of course – as acts of patriotism!

"But what is wrong with coming to the rescue of these institutions?", it may be asked. "Think of all the money that has been invested, and all the men and women who are employed by such firms." The same argument might well have been made, a century ago, when the buggy whip and carriage manufacturers, horse ranchers, and hay farmers, were faced with bankruptcy as a consequence of the automobile. Or what of the motion picture industry, which has regularly sent lobbyists to Washington to fight the "threat" of television, then cable television, and then VCR’s – all of which ended up being boons to Hollywood: should they have, as they continue to demand, government funding for their enterprises?

The problem with all of this, as historians advise us, is that the institutionalization of the systems that produce the values upon which a civilization depends, ultimately bring about the destruction of that civilization. Arnold Toynbee observed that a civilization begins to break down when there is "a loss of creative power in the souls of creative individuals," and, in time, the "differentiation and diversity" that characterized a dynamic civilization, is replaced by "a tendency towards standardization and uniformity." The emergence of a "universal state," and increased militarism, represent later stages in the disintegration of a civilization.

Will and Ariel Durant have reached similar conclusions, observing that the health of a civilization depends upon "individuals with clarity of mind and energy of will . . . capable of effective responses to new situations." Carroll Quigley has demonstrated how the maintenance of static, equilibrium conditions can lead to the collapse of civilizations, a process he directly relates to the institutionalization of what he calls the "instruments of expansion."

A creative civilization, in other words, is dynamic, not stable; adaptive to change, not seeking equilibrium. It is characterized not by those who seek to preserve what they have, but by those who seek to produce what their minds tell them they can have. Individual liberty abounds in such a society, as men and women advance new ideas, new technologies, and new practices. 

The explanation for the interrelatedness of institutionalism and the collapse of civilizations is not difficult. Because of their size and bureaucratic sluggishness, institutions tend to become less adaptable to the constancies of change inherent in all living systems. Life is a continuing process of making adjustments and creative responses in a world too complex to be predictable. But institutions insist not only upon their illusions of predictability, but their systems of control by which they imagine they can direct the world to their ends. This is why institutions have always aligned themselves with the forces of power, in order to compel the rest of nature – particularly mankind – to conform to their interests.

But power wars against life, for power seeks to force life to become what it does not choose to be. Because "life" expresses itself as autonomous and spontaneous activity, it is inextricably dependent upon the liberty of individuals. Liberty is not simply some ideological proposition designed to placate intellectuals who might otherwise become disruptive. It is, rather, the condition in which individuals – and the societies in which they live – can remain resilient, adaptive to changing conditions, and thus maintain the creative impulses necessary for their vibrancy. 

The individual, with his or her uniqueness and self-directed nature, is the expression of life on this planet. As such, a condition of liberty tends to generate variation and nonuniformity, with social order arising as the unintended consequence of individuals pursuing their varied self-interests. Manners, customs, the dynamics of the marketplace, cooperation, negotiation, and other social pressures, help to regularize human behavior while keeping it flexible. The antisocial conduct of the few is met with ostracism, boycotts, and other refusals to deal.

But institutions are uncomfortable with liberty, for the processes of change that are implicit therein run counter to their purposes of a structured permanency. Because of their size and scope of operation, institutions deal with people on a mass, rather than individualized, basis. As our world becomes more institutionalized, standardization and uniformity become more dominant values. The informal systems and practices that connect people to one another are replaced by coercive rules, violence and the threats of violence, SWAT teams, enhanced punishments, longer prison sentences for an ever-widening group of offenses. As such coercive practices proliferate, there is a continual weakening of the informal social mechanisms and, like muscles that fall into disuse after a serious illness or injury, begin to atrophy. Manners and social habits soon give way to speech codes, "hate" crimes, and other forms of institutionally-mandated standards of conduct. When a civilization reaches the point at which only coercive force is capable of holding it together, it is finished as a viable system. 

Civilizations die out for the same reason organisms do: their failure to maintain a sufficient resiliency that will permit them to overcome entropy. As the Durants put it, they then "linger on as stagnant pools left by once life-giving streams." Still, there is no historical determinism at work that would make the collapse of Western civilization inevitable. The health of any system depends on its being sufficiently resilient to allow it to adapt to the constancy of change that is inherent in all of life. In any society, there has always been an underlying current of energy through which the life processes seek expression. Political systems, grounded in coercion and violence, have always represented a continuing war against such life processes."

What's About to Happen

by J. Adams

" The long running question in the minds of long-term cyclical analysts like myself is: "What will precipitate the collapse of Western civilization?"

While Robert Prechter and the like are focused on the threat of an economic collapse caused by gross financial excesses and imbalances in the U.S. and global economy, I think they are missing the big picture. The DJIA trading above the 10,000 mark, a bubble in real estate prices, unprecedented levels of consumer, business and government indebtedness....these are all symptomatic of "irrational exuberance" stemming from a maximum of global consumption. In other words, man's self-confidence is at an all-time high as the world is immersed in an ultimate level of collective greed. The upset of the West's manic mood and irrationally optimistic outlook will involve financial and economic collapse, but this will occur AS PART OF negative historical shocks that reverse the mood of society.

What sort of shocks could occur? We likely received an important hint after the DJIA broke below Dow 10,000 on September 6th of 2001. After that, 9/11 occurred along with 'al Qaeda' terrorist attacks that brought down the Twin Towers and seriously damaged the Pentagon, the ultimate symbols of American capitalism and imperialism in the world, respectively (at least as the West's erstwhile enemies in the East see it). The hard truth of the matter is that there are aggressive enemies of Western society and their successes, like 9/11, is our unexpected undoing. The negative surprise that a Grand Supercycle collapse in stock prices and Western expectations entails may come in the form of successful blows against the free world by freedom's foes.

OCTOBER 2005

As is explained in my August 24th Stock Market Crash Alert, there is reason to believe that the next major leg down in the unfolding Grand Supercycle collapse of Western Civilization may occur this month in some facet. Why?

As strange as this seems this prognostication is based upon the fact that a solar eclipse will occur on October 3rd followed by a lunar eclipse on October 17th. Historically, stock market crashes tend to occur around the time of eclipses and most often during the month of October. A simple for instance of this occurred in 1987. The stock market topped out in August of that year and then started to reverse with panic selling developing into a crash after a solar/lunar eclipse pair into October 7th.

As it turns out, the eclipses this October may be of particular significance with regard to potential historical shocks in the form of terrorist attacks and/or war because of what America's enemies believe.

The solar eclipse tomorrow also entails the new moon after which the Islamic holy month of Ramadan begins. According to Yossef Bodansky, who authored the book Bin Laden: The Man Who Declared War on America years before 9/11, al Qaeda is planning a "Great Ramadan Offensive" designed to create a "fateful confrontation" with the U.S. and Israeli forces in the Middle East. In a report to the U.S. Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, Bodansky warned that "concrete preparations for the consolidation of Islamist-jihadist springboards against the heart and lair of the Great Satan are being completed -- for Western Europe in the Balkans, for Russian and Eastern Europe in Chechnya, and for the United States in the tri-border area in Latin America." Bodansky has long warned that al Qaeda plans to cause mass casualties on an unprecedented scale, most likely using weapons of mass destruction.

OSAMA BIN LADEN & THE MAHDI

That al Qaeda might be planning some sort of unprecedented Ramadan offensive is further suggested by Osama bin Laden's known messianic complex.

Many believe that Osama bin Laden aspires to be a prophetic "Mahdi" of Islam. The Mahdi (guided one) in Islamic eschatology is a prophecy about the redeemer of Islam who will change the world into a perfect society before Yaum al-Qiyamah, literally meaning the "Day of Resurrection" (the end times) (source: Wikipedia). This Mahdi is supposed to usher in a new 'Islamic caliphate', i.e., theocratic empire, that encompasses the entire Muslim world and beyond. Islamic extremists around the world are excitedly anticipating the arrival of the prophetic Mahdi to lead them in Jihad to a victory over the infidels.

It is believed that a solar and lunar eclipse during Ramadan that is visible in the Moslem world will mark the time when the prophesized Islamic Mahdi will become known:

"According to the Ahmaddiya movement, one of the signs which will indicate the emergence of al-Mahdi will be that in the month of Ramadan prior to his emergence two eclipses will occur, one of the sun and one of the moon, both being visible from the Middle East and Arabia. These signs are said to have been visible right after the claim of Mirza Ghulam Ahmad to be the Promised Messiah and Mahdi, and are supposed to happen again during Ramadan AH 1426 (roughly October 2005). These claims are disputed by many non-Ahmadi Muslims." - Wikipedia

The solar and lunar eclipse this month marking Ramadan are visible in the Moslem world and seem to fit the Islamic Mahdi prophecy.

If, indeed, Osama bin Laden aspires to be the Mahdi, then he might be planning to use this year's month of Ramadan, marked by solar and lunar eclipses witnessed in the Islamic world, to carry out attacks of prophetic scale, and this might mean terrorism with weapons of mass destruction. But does al Qaeda have such potent weaponry?

BIOTERROR AND/OR AN 'AMERICAN HIROSHIMA'?

Even more disturbing is the warning of Paul Williams, author of Osama's Revenge: THE NEXT 9/11 : What the Media and the Government Haven't Told You, and The Al Qaeda Connection: International Terrorism, Organized Crime, And the Coming Apocalypse, who is convinced that al Qaeda has operational nuclear weapons and is planning an "American Hiroshima". From pages 193 to 194 of his new book, we read the following conclusions:

There are fully assembled nuclear weapons in bin Laden's arsenal. The only disagreement comes with the number. The Russians say twelve to fifteen; the Saudis claim forty to seventy. Bin Laden obtained these weapons through his connections with the Chechen rebels and the Russian Mafia.The Chechen rebels helped to recruit Soviet scientists and SPETSNAZ technicians so that the weapons could be properly assembled and maintained.The location of the weapons remains unknown, but a stockpile was in Afghanistan before the launching of Operation Enduring Freedom on October 7, 2001.Several nuclear weapons, including suitcase bombs, mines, rucksacks, and crude tactical nuclear warheads, have been forward-deployed to the United States.Thousands of sleeper agents are estimated to be in place throughout the United States.Many of the agents, including Adnan el-Shukrijumah, Anas al-Liby, Jaber A. Elbaneh and Amer el-Maati, have been trained in nuclear technology.Nuclear supplies and materials have been transported across the Mexican border into the US.The next attack is planned to occur simultaneously at various sites throughout the country. Certain targets include Boston, New York, Washington, DC, Las Vegas, Miami, Chicago, and Los Angeles.Muslim terrorist organizations throughout the world, including Hezbollah, have been aiding al Qaeda in this massive undertaking.(For a thorough examination of Paul Williams' views, please see J.R. Nyquist's "Does Al Qaeda Have Nuclear Weapons?", Part 1 & Part 2.)

All in all, if al Qaeda has weaponized Anthrax and/or operational nukes and Osama bin Laden deems this month's Ramadan of prophetic significance for his leading a worldwide Jihad, then it seems there is grave danger in the days and/or weeks ahead for America and her allies.

Religious Symbolism and Beliefs: The Period of 14,000 DAYS

Interestingly, the Islamic prophetic importance attached to October 2005 coincides with a similar sort of significance accorded by some Christians.

A quick Google of "14,000 days" reveals a series of web sites dedicated to arguments about how Rosh Hoshanah 2005, the Jewish New Year that will occur Tuesday, coincides with a date 14,000 days after Israel took control of Jerusalem on June 7th, 1967 during the Six Days Arab/Israeli War.

This October 04, 2005, Rosh Hashana, is EXACTLY 14,000 days from June 07, 1967.

The significance of June 07, 1967 is this:

Luke 21:24 And they shall fall by the edge of the sword, and shall be led away captive into all nations: and Jerusalem shall be trodden down of the Gentiles, until the times of the Gentiles be fulfilled.

According to this verse; the Jews would be dispersed through out the world and Jerusalem would be trodden, or trampled, by the gentiles, or nations, until "the times of the Gentiles be fulfilled". Exactly 14,000 days from Jesus' proclamation of the destruction of Jerusalem, it happened in AD 70, as Jerusalem was surrounded by Titus Vespasian. The Jews were also dispersed throughout the world, just as Jesus had predicted. It is interesting that the Jews have always maintained their identity regardless of what nation they were in. For example: Russian Jews, Romanian Jews, Polish Jews, German Jews, Ethiopian Jews, etc... YHWH, the actual name of GOD, promised that He would bring His people back. This happened in May 14, 1948 when Israel became a nation, born overnight. Jews have been returning to their homeland. Jerusalem was still in gentile hands, though, until June 07, 1967 after the Six day war. YHWH brought a miraculous victory for His people. The Jews were outnumbered and out gunned significantly, but were victorious through GOD. Jerusalem is no longer under gentile control. Luke 21:31 So likewise ye, when ye see these things come to pass, know ye that the kingdom of God is nigh at hand. Luke 21:32 Verily I say unto you, This generation shall not pass away, till all be fulfilled. I and many others believe that "This generation" is the generation of June 07, 1967. Take 14,000 days from this date, a biblical generation, and you come to October 04, 2005. This day is also a very significant feast, Rosh Hashana. (reference)

What does this mean? I'm not certain. But it suggests that the period we are entering is of significance to Christian Messianism as well as Islamic Mahdism."

 

COLLAPSE: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

by Jared Diamond

"The monumental ruins left behind by those past societies hold a romantic fascination for all of us. We marvel at them when as children we first learn of them through pictures. When we grow up, many of us plan vacations in order to experience them at firsthand as tourists. We feel drawn to their often spectacular and haunting beauty, and also to the mysteries that they pose. The scales of the ruins testify to the former wealth and power of their builders -- they boast "Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!" in Shelley's words. Yet the builders vanished, abandoning the great structures that they had created at such effort. How could a society that was once so mighty end up collapsing? What were the fates of its individual citizens? -- did they move away, and (if so) why, or did they die there in some unpleasant way? Lurking behind this romantic mystery is the nagging thought: might such a fate eventually befall our own wealthy society? Will tourists someday stare mystified at the rusting hulks of New York's skyscrapers, much as we stare today at the jungle-overgrown ruins of Maya cities?

It has long been suspected that many of those mysterious abandonments were at least partly triggered by ecological problems: people inadvertently destroying the environmental resources on which their societies depended. This suspicion of unintended ecological suicide -- ecocide -- has been confirmed by discoveries made in recent decades by archaeologists, climatologists, historians, paleontologists, and palynologists (pollen scientists). The processes through which past societies have undermined themselves by damaging their environments fall into eight categories, whose relative importance differs from case to case: deforestation and habitat destruction, soil problems (erosion, salinization, and soil fertility losses), water management problems, overhunting, overfishing, effects of introduced species on native species, human population growth, and increased per capita impact of people.

Those past collapses tended to follow somewhat similar courses constituting variations on a theme. Population growth forced people to adopt intensified means of agricultural production (such as irrigation, doublecropping, or terracing), and to expand farming from the prime lands first chosen onto more marginal land, in order to feed the growing number of hungry mouths. Unsustainable practices led to environmental damage of one or more of the eight types just listed, resulting in agriculturally marginal lands having to be abandoned again. Consequences for society included food shortages, starvation, wars among too many people fighting for too few resources, and overthrows of governing elites by disillusioned masses. Eventually, population decreased through starvation, war, or disease, and society lost some of the political, economic, and cultural complexity that it had developed at its peak. Writers find it tempting to draw analogies between those trajectories of human societies and the trajectories of individual human lives -- to talk of a society's birth, growth, peak, senescence, and death -- and to assume that the long period of senescence that most of us traverse between our peak years and our deaths also applies to societies. But that metaphor proves erroneous for many past societies (and for the modern Soviet Union): they declined rapidly after reaching peak numbers and power, and those rapid declines must have come as a surprise and shock to their citizens. In the worst cases of complete collapse, everybody in the society emigrated or died. Obviously, though, this grim trajectory is not one that all past societies followed unvaryingly to completion: different societies collapsed to different degrees and in somewhat different ways, while many societies didn't collapse at all..."